By DynastyMath Staff · Published · Numbers as of October 24, 2026 · 5 min read
Three games is a trend, not a verdict. It is still the cleanest signal you get in Week 7. Here are the players whose last-3 PPR average runs ahead of their season average, plus the ones sliding the other way. Numbers as of Oct 24, 2026.
The pool: 150 players with at least 4 games played, a full 3-game last-3 window and a season average of 8.0 PPR points or better. The floor cuts low-scoring noise, where one 12-point game moves everything. Of those 150, 81 are running above their season pace and 69 below. The ten biggest gaps are below, ranked by last-3 minus season.
The ten biggest jumps
| Player | Pos | Games | Season PPG | Last 3 PPG | Difference | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Malik Nabers (NYG) | WR | 6 | 17.1 | 26.9 | +9.8 | — |
| Drake Maye (NE) | QB | 7 | 20.9 | 30.2 | +9.3 | — |
| Kyle Pitts Sr. (ATL) | TE | 6 | 8.3 | 15.3 | +7.0 | — |
| DeMario Douglas (NE) | WR | 7 | 9.2 | 15.8 | +6.6 | — |
| Ollie Gordon II (MIA) | RB | 5 | 9.6 | 15.8 | +6.2 | — |
| Emanuel Wilson (SEA) | RB | 6 | 9.4 | 15.1 | +5.7 | — |
| Germie Bernard (PIT) | WR | 6 | 8.9 | 14.4 | +5.5 | — |
| Colston Loveland (CHI) | TE | 7 | 8.9 | 14.1 | +5.2 | — |
| Isaiah Likely (NYG) | TE | 6 | 18.2 | 23.3 | +5.1 | — |
| Jaylin Noel (HOU) | WR | 6 | 10.8 | 15.9 | +5.1 | — |
Malik Nabers leads at +9.8, from 17.1 to 26.9. He has played 6 games, so half of that sample is the hot stretch. Treat it as heat, not a new baseline. Drake Maye is the only quarterback in the ten. He averaged 20.9 for the season and has pushed to 30.2.
The rest splits into 2 running backs, 4 receivers and 3 tight ends. Kyle Pitts Sr. (ATL) moved from 8.3 to 15.3. Colston Loveland (CHI) moved from 8.9 to 14.1. Isaiah Likely (NYG) has the best last-3 average of any tight end in the pool at 23.3, and he was already at 18.2 for the season.
None of the ten carries an injury tag in our data. Tyquan Thornton would rank 16th on this list at +3.8, but he is listed IR, so leave him out of lineup math.
What the projections say
A hot streak only matters if it keeps going. This table shows the Week 7 PPR projection and the sum of Sleeper's projections for the next three weeks. "Weeks" is how many of those weeks have a projection. Where it says 2, the sum covers two weeks, so compare the per-week column, not the total. A dash means no projection.
| Player | Week 7 proj | Next week | Next-3 sum | Weeks | Per week |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Malik Nabers | 14.0 | — | 28.3 | 2 | 14.2 |
| Drake Maye | 21.7 | 22.3 | 64.9 | 3 | 21.6 |
| Kyle Pitts Sr. | 8.8 | 8.3 | 25.3 | 3 | 8.4 |
| DeMario Douglas | 8.6 | 8.8 | 24.0 | 3 | 8.0 |
| Ollie Gordon II | 13.1 | 12.9 | 40.3 | 3 | 13.4 |
| Emanuel Wilson | 10.1 | 8.1 | 21.4 | 3 | 7.1 |
| Germie Bernard | 11.6 | 8.9 | 20.5 | 2 | 10.2 |
| Colston Loveland | 9.8 | 9.0 | 29.1 | 3 | 9.7 |
| Isaiah Likely | 12.7 | — | 25.2 | 2 | 12.6 |
| Jaylin Noel | 8.9 | — | 14.6 | 2 | 7.3 |
Every one of the ten is projected below his last-3 pace this week. The projections do not chase the streak. Nine of the ten sit closer to their season average than to their last-3 number. Drake Maye has the highest Week 7 projection at 21.7. Among the other nine it is Malik Nabers at 14.0, against a 26.9 last-3 average.
For the longer view, Ollie Gordon II has the biggest next-3 sum among the non-quarterbacks with all three weeks projected: 40.3, or 13.4 a week. He projects at 13.1 this week against a 15.8 last-3 average. Kyle Pitts Sr. projects at 8.8, only +0.5 from his season average. That is the pattern across the list: the number you can plan on is close to the season line, not the streak.
Cooling off: last-3 below season
| Player | Pos | Season PPG | Last 3 PPG | Difference | Week 7 proj | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Amon-Ra St. Brown (DET) | WR | 20.8 | 13.4 | -7.4 | 19.5 | — |
| Jaxon Smith-Njigba (SEA) | WR | 27.5 | 20.3 | -7.2 | 24.4 | — |
| Caleb Williams (CHI) | QB | 21.2 | 15.4 | -5.8 | 18.7 | — |
| Kalif Raymond (CHI) | WR | 8.0 | 2.4 | -5.6 | 7.0 | — |
| Jalen Coker (CAR) | WR | 17.0 | 11.4 | -5.6 | 15.6 | — |
| Derrick Henry (BAL) | RB | 19.5 | 14.0 | -5.5 | 16.6 | — |
Amon-Ra St. Brown has the largest drop in the pool at -7.4 (20.8 to 13.4). His Week 7 projection is 19.5, well above the last-3 number. These are not sells on their own. A 20-point season average does not vanish in three games. They are the names where the cold stretch and the projection disagree. That is a reason to check the lineup, not to bench a star.
How to use this
- Start with this week's projection. Last-3 is the tiebreaker, not the verdict.
- Open the start/sit tool and compare two similar players side by side.
- Check the Weeks column before you trust a next-3 sum. A two-week sum is not comparable with a three-week one.
- For the longer view, the rest-of-season rankings blend this week's projection, the last 3 games and the season average.
- Skip any name with an injury tag until his status is clear.
Frequently asked questions
Which fantasy players are breaking out in Week 7?
As of Oct 24, 2026, the biggest gaps between last-3 and season PPR average are Malik Nabers (+9.8), Drake Maye (+9.3), Kyle Pitts Sr. (+7.0) and DeMario Douglas (+6.6). The pool is players with at least 4 games and a season average of 8.0 or better.
Is last-3 PPG better than season PPG for start/sit?
Neither alone. Last-3 is a small sample, and the Week 7 projection for all ten risers sits below their last-3 average. Use last-3 to break ties between players with similar projections.
Who is cooling off in fantasy football this week?
The biggest drops from season average to last-3 average are Amon-Ra St. Brown (-7.4), Jaxon Smith-Njigba (-7.2), Caleb Williams (-5.8). All three have a Week 7 projection above their last-3 average.
Should I add a player just because his last 3 games are hot?
Check the projection first. Drake Maye is projected for 21.7 this week, the top number among the ten risers, but every one of the ten is projected below his last-3 pace. Read the Weeks column too: some next-3 sums cover only two weeks.
Where can I compare two players for this week?
Use the start/sit tool for a side-by-side on projection, season PPG and last-3 PPG.
More from the blog
- Rest-of-Season Rankings: Most Projected PPR Points, Weeks 9-11
- Dynasty Buy-Low and Sell-High Trade Targets Week 9
- Week 9 Start/Sit Projection Tiers: QB, RB, WR and TE
Numbers as of October 24, 2026. Live values move daily, so check the linked pages for today’s. Fantasy football is for fun. This is data, not betting advice.