By DynastyMath Staff · Published · Numbers as of November 11, 2026 · 6 min read
Hot streaks sell. Projections pay. Here are the Week 10 players whose last-3 PPR average runs ahead of their season average, then the starters going the other way. Numbers as of Nov 11, 2026.
The rules, plainly: at least 4 games played, a full 3-game last-3 window, and a season average of 8.0 PPR points or better. Anyone listed Out, Doubtful, IR, PUP or suspended is out of the pool. That leaves 137 players, 62 above their season pace and 73 below. We also skipped the names from last week's breakouts piece so you get new ones. Ranked by last-3 minus season.
Ten risers: last 3 games vs season
| Player | Pos | Games | Season PPG | Last 3 PPG | Difference | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tee Higgins (CIN) | WR | 8 | 20.0 | 28.2 | +8.2 | — |
| Omar Cooper Jr. (NYJ) | WR | 5 | 12.5 | 19.5 | +7.0 | — |
| Bucky Irving (TB) | RB | 9 | 17.7 | 24.5 | +6.8 | — |
| KC Concepcion Jr. (CLE) | WR | 9 | 9.8 | 16.2 | +6.4 | — |
| Makai Lemon (PHI) | WR | 9 | 8.2 | 14.5 | +6.3 | — |
| Bo Nix (DEN) | QB | 9 | 15.0 | 20.4 | +5.4 | — |
| Harold Fannin Jr. (CLE) | TE | 9 | 11.4 | 16.2 | +4.8 | — |
| Germie Bernard (PIT) | WR | 8 | 8.4 | 13.1 | +4.7 | — |
| Christian McCaffrey (SF) | RB | 8 | 20.8 | 25.1 | +4.3 | — |
| Colston Loveland (CHI) | TE | 9 | 9.3 | 13.6 | +4.3 | — |
Tee Higgins (CIN) leads at +8.2, from 20.0 to 28.2 over 8 games. Omar Cooper Jr. (NYJ) follows at +7.0. The ten split into 1 quarterback, 2 running backs, 5 receivers and 2 tight ends.
Four of them are rookies. Omar Cooper Jr. is on the list at +7.0, but he has only 5 games, so his season average rests on a small sample. KC Concepcion Jr. and Makai Lemon each have 9 games, and their season numbers (9.8 and 8.2) are low enough that a good three-game run moves the gap a lot. Germie Bernard is the fourth, at 8.4 for the season. Their dynasty prices are in the rookie risers and fallers piece.
What the Week 10 projections say
A streak only matters if it continues. This table shows each riser's Week 10 PPR projection, next week's, and the sum of Sleeper's projections for the next three weeks. "Weeks" is how many of those weeks have a projection, so compare the per-week column, not the total. A dash means no projection in our data.
| Player | Last 3 PPG | Week 10 proj | Next week | Next-3 sum | Weeks | Per week |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tee Higgins | 28.2 | 17.2 | 17.4 | 51.1 | 3 | 17.0 |
| Omar Cooper Jr. | 19.5 | 9.2 | 10.4 | 30.9 | 3 | 10.3 |
| Bucky Irving | 24.5 | — | 18.8 | 38.1 | 2 | 19.1 |
| KC Concepcion Jr. | 16.2 | 10.2 | — | 21.5 | 2 | 10.8 |
| Makai Lemon | 14.5 | — | 5.9 | 12.2 | 2 | 6.1 |
| Bo Nix | 20.4 | — | 19.0 | 35.0 | 2 | 17.5 |
| Harold Fannin Jr. | 16.2 | 11.3 | — | 24.0 | 2 | 12.0 |
| Germie Bernard | 13.1 | 10.5 | 9.0 | 28.2 | 3 | 9.4 |
| Christian McCaffrey | 25.1 | 22.1 | 21.2 | 63.3 | 3 | 21.1 |
| Colston Loveland | 13.6 | — | 11.4 | 23.2 | 2 | 11.6 |
Six of the ten risers have a Week 10 projection; Bucky Irving, Makai Lemon, Bo Nix and Colston Loveland have none. All six are projected below their last-3 pace. Three sit below their season average, too. The projections do not chase the streak.
The per-week column tells the same story. Not one riser has a per-week projection above its last-3 average. Christian McCaffrey has the top Week 10 number at 22.1, against 25.1 over the last three, and the best per-week figure at 21.1 across all three weeks.
Breakouts the projections do not back
Three risers show the widest distance between the streak and the forecast. Compare last-3 PPG with the Week 10 projection.
- Tee Higgins: 28.2 over the last three, 17.2 projected for Week 10, a gap of 11.0.
- Omar Cooper Jr.: 19.5 over the last three, 9.2 projected for Week 10, a gap of 10.3.
- KC Concepcion Jr.: 16.2 over the last three, 10.2 projected for Week 10, a gap of 6.0.
That does not make them sells. It means the forecast expects a return toward the season number (20.0 for Tee Higgins, 12.5 for Omar Cooper Jr., 9.8 for KC Concepcion Jr.). If you have to choose between two similar starters, take the one with the higher projection.
Cold starters: last 3 well below season
| Player | Pos | Games | Season PPG | Last 3 PPG | Difference | Week 10 proj | Next-3 per week |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jared Goff (DET) | QB | 8 | 18.7 | 10.8 | -7.9 | 18.8 | 19.4 |
| Jahmyr Gibbs (DET) | RB | 8 | 26.2 | 18.5 | -7.7 | 24.7 | 25.3 |
| Derrick Henry (BAL) | RB | 9 | 15.8 | 8.5 | -7.3 | 15.3 | 15.7 |
| Josh Allen (BUF) | QB | 8 | 25.8 | 19.2 | -6.6 | 26.5 | 27.4 |
| Aaron Jones Sr. (MIN) | RB | 8 | 10.4 | 4.2 | -6.2 | 9.9 | 9.7 |
| Sam LaPorta (DET) | TE | 8 | 11.6 | 5.5 | -6.1 | 12.9 | 13.0 |
| Nico Collins (HOU) | WR | 6 | 15.3 | 9.7 | -5.6 | 15.0 | 17.0 |
| Jalen Coker (CAR) | WR | 7 | 12.3 | 6.7 | -5.6 | 14.6 | 14.9 |
Jared Goff has the largest drop at -7.9 (18.7 to 10.8), with Jahmyr Gibbs next at -7.7. These are not automatic benches. All eight have a Week 10 projection, and every one sits above its last-3 number. The next-3 per-week figure is higher than the last-3 average for all eight.
Two of the eight are quarterbacks (Jared Goff, Josh Allen); the rest are running backs, receivers and a tight end, so check the Pos column before you assume it is a position-wide dip. Three games is a small window against a full-season average.
How to use this
- Start with this week's projection. Last-3 is the tiebreaker, not the verdict.
- Open the start/sit tool and compare two similar players side by side.
- Read the Weeks column before you trust a next-3 sum. A two-week sum is not comparable with a three-week one.
- For the longer view, the rest-of-season rankings blend this week's projection, the last 3 games and the season average.
- Check the full Week 10 start/sit page before you lock your lineup, and pause on any name with an injury tag.
Frequently asked questions
Which fantasy players are breaking out in Week 10?
As of Nov 11, 2026, the biggest gaps between last-3 and season PPR average are Tee Higgins (+8.2), Omar Cooper Jr. (+7.0), Bucky Irving (+6.8) and KC Concepcion Jr. (+6.4). The pool is players with at least 4 games and a season average of 8.0 or better, and names from last week's list are skipped.
Is last-3 PPG better than season PPG for start/sit?
Neither alone. Last-3 is a small sample. All six risers with a Week 10 projection are projected below their last-3 average. Use last-3 to break ties between players with similar projections.
Who is cooling off in fantasy football this week?
The biggest drops from season average to last-3 average are Jared Goff (-7.9), Jahmyr Gibbs (-7.7) and Derrick Henry (-7.3). Check the projection column before you bench any of them.
Should I add a player just because their last 3 games are hot?
Check the projection first. Christian McCaffrey has the highest Week 10 projection of the risers at 22.1, and all six projected risers are below their last-3 pace. Read the Weeks column too: some next-3 sums cover only two weeks.
Where can I compare two players for this week?
Use the start/sit tool for a side-by-side on projection, season PPG and last-3 PPG, or the rest-of-season rankings for the longer view.
More from the blog
- Dynasty Rookie Risers and Fallers Week 10: Who Moved Since Nov 4
- Week 10 Start/Sit Projection Tiers: QB, RB, WR and TE
- Dynasty Buy-Low and Sell-High Trade Targets Week 10
Numbers as of November 11, 2026. Live values move daily, so check the linked pages for today’s. Fantasy football is for fun. This is data, not betting advice.