By DynastyMath Staff · Published · Numbers as of October 21, 2026 · 5 min read
Start the high projection. Break ties with recent scoring. That is the whole method. Every number is PPR points for Week 7, as of Oct 21, 2026.
How the tiers work. Within each position, Tier 1 is any player less than 3 points below the top projection. Tier 2 is 3 to 6 points back, and so on. Players in a tier are close enough to swap.
Quarterbacks
| Tier | Player | Proj | Season PPG | Last 3 PPG | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Lamar Jackson (BAL) | 22.4 | 20 | 18 | Questionable |
| 1 | Drake Maye (NE) | 21.6 | 19.7 | 29.8 | Active |
| 1 | Brock Purdy (SF) | 20.7 | 22.7 | 17.7 | Active |
| 1 | Joe Burrow (CIN) | 19.8 | 20.8 | 23.6 | Active |
| 2 | Bo Nix (DEN) | 19.4 | 12.1 | 8.7 | Active |
| 2 | Jordan Love (GB) | 19.3 | 19.1 | 19.5 | Active |
| 2 | Jared Goff (DET) | 18.9 | 23 | 22.9 | Active |
Lamar Jackson tops the board at 22.4 but is listed Questionable, so check his status before kickoff. Tier 1 is the first four: Lamar Jackson, Drake Maye, Brock Purdy, Joe Burrow. Tier 2 runs from Bo Nix at 19.4 down to Jared Goff at 18.9.
Bo Nix is the one to watch. He is projected for 19.4, but he averages 12.1 for the season and 8.7 over his last three. That is the biggest gap between projection and season average in the table. His games have not looked like his projection. Jared Goff is the other side: the best season average of the seven at 23, projected for 18.9.
Running backs
| Tier | Player | Proj | Season PPG | Last 3 PPG | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jahmyr Gibbs (DET) | 25.5 | 30.7 | 32.3 | Active |
| 1 | Bijan Robinson (ATL) | 22.8 | 21.4 | 16.9 | Active |
| 2 | Christian McCaffrey (SF) | 21.2 | 20.3 | 21.3 | Active |
| 2 | Kyren Williams (LAR) | 20 | 19.8 | 22 | Active |
| 3 | Kenneth Walker (KC) | 18.5 | 27.6 | 26.7 | Active |
| 3 | Jonathan Taylor (IND) | 17.7 | 19.8 | 18.3 | Active |
| 3 | Javonte Williams (DAL) | 17.6 | 18.2 | 19.5 | Active |
| 3 | Derrick Henry (BAL) | 17.5 | 19.5 | 14 | Active |
| 3 | Bucky Irving (TB) | 17 | 14.3 | 14.8 | Active |
Jahmyr Gibbs is alone at the top: 25.5 projected, 30.7 per game this season, 32.3 over his last three. The next name, Bijan Robinson at 22.8, is the only other Tier 1 back. Everything after that is a tier lower. Kenneth Walker is the most interesting back in the table. He is projected for 18.5 against a 27.6 season average, the biggest drop from average to projection of the nine. Bucky Irving is the opposite: projected for 17 against 14.3.
Wide receivers
| Tier | Player | Proj | Season PPG | Last 3 PPG | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jaxon Smith-Njigba (SEA) | 23.5 | 27.5 | 20.3 | Active |
| 1 | Puka Nacua (LAR) | 22.3 | 23 | 26.5 | Active |
| 2 | Zay Flowers (BAL) | 19.7 | 18.9 | 17.7 | Active |
| 2 | Amon-Ra St. Brown (DET) | 19.5 | 20.8 | 13.4 | Active |
| 2 | Ja'Marr Chase (CIN) | 19.1 | 16 | 16.7 | Active |
| 2 | Christian Watson (GB) | 17.7 | 19.8 | 16.5 | Active |
| 3 | CeeDee Lamb (DAL) | 17.4 | 21.8 | 20.1 | Active |
| 3 | Chris Olave (NO) | 17.1 | 18.8 | 14.2 | Active |
| 3 | Justin Jefferson (MIN) | 16.9 | 15.9 | 10.8 | Active |
Jaxon Smith-Njigba (23.5) and Puka Nacua (22.3) are the two sure starts. Jaxon Smith-Njigba is also the best season average of the nine at 27.5. Ja'Marr Chase is projected for 19.1 against a 16 season average, the biggest upgrade from average to projection in the table. Justin Jefferson has the lowest last-three of the nine (10.8) while projected for 16.9, so the two numbers disagree.
Tight ends
| Tier | Player | Proj | Season PPG | Last 3 PPG | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | George Kittle (SF) | 16.8 | 15 | 14.1 | Active |
| 1 | Brock Bowers (LV) | 16.4 | 20.6 | 18.2 | Active |
| 1 | Trey McBride (ARI) | 15.5 | 17.2 | 14.7 | Active |
| 2 | Sam LaPorta (DET) | 13 | 15.3 | 16.5 | Active |
| 2 | Isaiah Likely (NYG) | 12.5 | 18.2 | 23.3 | Active |
| 2 | Tucker Kraft (GB) | 11.6 | 9.4 | 12.3 | Active |
George Kittle, Brock Bowers and Trey McBride are Tier 1. After them there is a drop: Sam LaPorta is projected for 13, more than 2 points below Trey McBride.
Flex: the four-way tie at 16.9
Four flex players share one projection, so the projection cannot decide it. Season and last-three scoring do. All four are Active as of Oct 21, 2026.
| Player | Pos | Proj | Season PPG | Last 3 PPG | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jaylen Warren (PIT) | RB | 16.9 | 17.1 | 20.7 | Active |
| Nico Collins (HOU) | WR | 16.9 | 18.4 | 17.4 | Active |
| Garrett Wilson (NYJ) | WR | 16.9 | 15.8 | 12.5 | Active |
| Justin Jefferson (MIN) | WR | 16.9 | 15.9 | 10.8 | Active |
Jaylen Warren has the best last-three in the group at 20.7 PPG. Justin Jefferson has the worst at 10.8, even though his season average is 15.9. Pick off recent scoring. The flex start/sit page has the full flex board.
When the last three games disagree with the projection
| Player | Pos | Proj | Last 3 PPG | Last 3 minus proj |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Isaiah Likely | TE | 12.5 | 23.3 | +10.8 |
| Drake Maye | QB | 21.6 | 29.8 | +8.2 |
| Kenneth Walker | RB | 18.5 | 26.7 | +8.2 |
| Bo Nix | QB | 19.4 | 8.7 | -10.7 |
| Amon-Ra St. Brown | WR | 19.5 | 13.4 | -6.1 |
| Justin Jefferson | WR | 16.9 | 10.8 | -6.1 |
Isaiah Likely is the widest gap above the projection (+10.8), with Drake Maye and Kenneth Walker tied next at +8.2. At the bottom, Bo Nix is 10.7 points below. A gap is a flag, not an order. Three games is a small sample.
How to use this
- Start Tier 1 at every position.
- Fill flex from the highest projection. Break ties on last-three.
- Check status Sunday morning. Lamar Jackson is the only one of the 31 players in the position tables listed with a tag. Statuses change.
- Go deeper. The Week 7 start/sit page covers more players, and the start/sit tool compares two of yours.
Frequently asked questions
Who are the top fantasy quarterbacks to start in Week 7?
By PPR projection as of Oct 21, 2026: Lamar Jackson (22.4), Drake Maye (21.6), Brock Purdy (20.7), Joe Burrow (19.8). Lamar Jackson is listed Questionable.
Who should I start at flex in Week 7?
Four players tie at 16.9: Jaylen Warren, Nico Collins, Garrett Wilson, Justin Jefferson. Last-three PPG separates them, 20.7 for Jaylen Warren down to 10.8 for Justin Jefferson.
Is Jahmyr Gibbs a must-start in Week 7?
Yes by the numbers. He is projected for 25.5, the highest running back projection, and averages 30.7 per game over 5 games.
Should I trust projections or recent scoring?
Use projections first and recent scoring as the tie-breaker. When the last-three is more than a few points away from the projection, treat it as a flag, not an answer.
More from the blog
- Rest-of-Season Rankings: Most Projected PPR Points, Weeks 9-11
- Dynasty Buy-Low and Sell-High Trade Targets Week 9
- Week 9 Start/Sit Projection Tiers: QB, RB, WR and TE
Numbers as of October 21, 2026. Live values move daily, so check the linked pages for today’s. Fantasy football is for fun. This is data, not betting advice.