By DynastyMath Staff · Published · Numbers as of November 1, 2026 · 5 min read
Past points are a record. Projections are a forecast. When the two disagree, you have a trade. Numbers as of Nov 1, 2026.
For each player, we took the average projected PPR points per week over Weeks 8-10 and compared it with his points per game this season. A buy is a player whose projection sits above his season average. A sell is a player who has been scoring more than he is projected to score. The pool is 30 receivers, running backs and tight ends. The rules are plain: at least 4 games played, a projection for all three weeks, a rest-of-season score of 12 or higher, and no player ruled Out or on IR. Quarterbacks and the top 12 running backs by dynasty value are left out. This is redraft PPR. Dynasty values are a separate question.
"Difference" is the projection per week minus season PPG. A plus means the forecast is higher than what he has scored. The ROS score blends the projection (40%), last-3 PPG (30%) and season PPG (30%).
Seven buy targets
| Player | Pos | Team | Season PPG | Last 3 | Proj per week, Wks 8-10 | Difference | ROS score | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rashee Rice | WR | KC | 9.5 | 12.7 | 14.1 | +4.6 | 12.3 | — |
| Justin Jefferson | WR | MIN | 14.4 | 10.8 | 17.6 | +3.2 | 14.6 | — |
| Ja'Marr Chase | WR | CIN | 16.2 | 14.2 | 19.1 | +2.9 | 16.8 | — |
| Ollie Gordon II | RB | MIA | 10.9 | 16.7 | 13.5 | +2.6 | 13.7 | — |
| Jalen Coker | WR | CAR | 13.2 | 9.7 | 15.2 | +2.0 | 13 | — |
| Garrett Wilson | WR | NYJ | 14.2 | 12.1 | 15.4 | +1.2 | 14.1 | — |
| Drake London | WR | ATL | 15.4 | 16.9 | 16.4 | +1.0 | 16.3 | — |
Rashee Rice has the biggest plus of the 30: 14.1 projected per week against 9.5 scored (+4.6). He has played 4 games, the fewest of the seven buys, so the season number is a small sample. His last three average 12.7.
Justin Jefferson is projected 17.6 per week against 14.4 scored (+3.2), with 10.8 over his last three. Ja'Marr Chase is the highest-rated buy by ROS score (16.8): 19.1 projected, 16.2 scored, 14.2 recently. Neither carries an injury status, and both have scored less lately than their season average.
Ollie Gordon II is the only back on the buy list. He scores 10.9 per game on the season, 16.7 over his last three, and is projected 13.5. Jalen Coker is projected 15.2 but has scored 9.7 over his last three. That gap is a risk, so he is the weakest of the seven. Garrett Wilson (+1.2) and Drake London (+1.0) are smaller edges. Their season and recent numbers sit close together.
Seven sell candidates
| Player | Pos | Team | Season PPG | Last 3 | Proj per week, Wks 8-10 | Difference | ROS score | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tre Tucker | WR | LV | 14.3 | 18.5 | 10.4 | -3.9 | 14 | — |
| Amon-Ra St. Brown | WR | DET | 21.4 | 17.5 | 17.8 | -3.6 | 18.8 | — |
| Jameson Williams | WR | DET | 14 | 20.3 | 10.6 | -3.4 | 14.5 | — |
| Matthew Golden | WR | GB | 16.4 | 17.7 | 13.1 | -3.3 | 15.5 | — |
| Jaxon Smith-Njigba | WR | SEA | 28 | 26.5 | 25.3 | -2.7 | 26.5 | — |
| Quinshon Judkins | RB | CLE | 13.3 | 17.7 | 10.6 | -2.7 | 13.5 | — |
| Christian Watson | WR | GB | 18.4 | 12.5 | 15.9 | -2.5 | 15.6 | Questionable |
Tre Tucker has the biggest minus of the 30: 14.3 scored per game, 10.4 projected (-3.9). His last three average 18.5, so recent scoring is hot and the forecast still says cool down. Jameson Williams looks the same way: 20.3 over his last three against 14 for the season and 10.6 projected. Amon-Ra St. Brown is on the same team and projects 17.8 against 21.4 scored. He is still projected well, so this is a price play, not a panic.
Matthew Golden and Quinshon Judkins both average 17.7 over their last three, above their season PPG, yet the projections (13.1 and 10.6) sit below the season line. Sell the hot streak. Christian Watson is listed Questionable. He scored 18.4 per game, but only 12.5 over his last three, and is projected 15.9.
Jaxon Smith-Njigba is a sell on the math and nothing else. He has the highest season PPG (28) and the highest projection per week (25.3) of all 30. A 2.7 gap on a player projected 25.3 is small. Hold unless a manager overpays.
What the table does not say
Projections are Sleeper's, and they miss. Only 4 or 5 games back the season average for Rice and Jefferson, so one big week moves it. Last-3 PPG is three games. George Pickens is the only other player in the pool listed Questionable and sits at -0.7, so he is not on either list. The pool leans negative: 20 of 30 players project below their season average, and 10 project above. A minus is common. A plus is not.
How to use this
- Look up each sell on your roster. If the difference is -2.5 or lower, test the market.
- Offer a sell for a buy at the same position, then compare the two in the start/sit tool and price the deal in the trade analyzer.
- Check status first. Watson is Questionable.
- For the full list by position, see the rest-of-season rankings and the WR rest-of-season page.
- Keep a player if he starts for you and the difference is under 1.
Frequently asked questions
Who are the best redraft trade targets in Week 8?
As of Nov 1, 2026, Rashee Rice (14.1 projected per week against 9.5 scored), Justin Jefferson (17.6 against 14.4) and Ja'Marr Chase (19.1 against 16.2) show the biggest gains over their season PPG.
Who should I sell in redraft right now?
Tre Tucker (14.3 scored, 10.4 projected), Amon-Ra St. Brown (21.4 against 17.8) and Jameson Williams (14 against 10.6) have the biggest gaps in the wrong direction.
Should I sell Jaxon Smith-Njigba?
Probably not. He is -2.7 against his season PPG, but his projection of 25.3 per week is the highest in the pool of 30.
What does the difference column mean?
It is the average Weeks 8-10 projection per week minus season PPG. Rice is +4.6, so the projection is 4.6 points per week above what he has scored.
Are these dynasty values?
No. These are redraft PPR numbers. For dynasty prices, use the dynasty trade values.
More from the blog
- Rest-of-Season Rankings: Most Projected PPR Points, Weeks 9-11
- Dynasty Buy-Low and Sell-High Trade Targets Week 9
- Week 9 Start/Sit Projection Tiers: QB, RB, WR and TE
Numbers as of November 1, 2026. Live values move daily, so check the linked pages for today’s. Fantasy football is for fun. This is data, not betting advice.