By DynastyMath Staff · Published · Numbers as of November 6, 2026 · 5 min read
Three games is a trend, not a verdict. It is still the best quick read you get before lineups lock. Here are the Week 9 players whose last-3 PPR average runs ahead of their season average, and the starters going the other way. Numbers as of Nov 6, 2026.
The pool: 157 players with at least 4 games played, a full 3-game last-3 window and a season average of 8.0 PPR points or better. 72 are above their season pace and 85 below. We left out anyone listed Out, IR, PUP or suspended, and skipped the names from the last two breakouts pieces so you get fresh ones. Ranked by last-3 minus season.
Ten risers: last 3 games vs season
| Player | Pos | Games | Season PPG | Last 3 PPG | Difference | Adds 24h | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tony Pollard (TEN) | RB | 8 | 14.6 | 24.3 | +9.7 | — | — |
| Tyler Allgeier (ARI) | RB | 8 | 10.5 | 16.6 | +6.1 | 37K | — |
| Joe Burrow (CIN) | QB | 7 | 25.1 | 31.0 | +5.9 | — | — |
| Luther Burden III (CHI) | WR | 8 | 14.5 | 19.9 | +5.4 | — | — |
| Bhayshul Tuten (JAX) | RB | 8 | 15.9 | 21.2 | +5.3 | — | — |
| Kyler Murray (MIN) | QB | 6 | 12.8 | 17.4 | +4.6 | — | Questionable |
| Malik Willis (MIA) | QB | 7 | 15.2 | 19.8 | +4.6 | 260K | — |
| D'Andre Swift (CHI) | RB | 8 | 18.8 | 23.3 | +4.5 | — | — |
| Ja'Marr Chase (CIN) | WR | 7 | 18.3 | 22.7 | +4.4 | — | — |
| Rashee Rice (KC) | WR | 5 | 11.3 | 15.5 | +4.2 | — | — |
Tony Pollard (TEN) tops the list at +9.7, from 14.6 to 24.3 over 8 games. Tyler Allgeier (ARI) is right behind at +6.1. The ten split into 3 quarterbacks, 4 running backs, 3 receivers.
Two of the ten are trending adds on Sleeper. Malik Willis leads that group with 260,113 adds in 24 hours. The list is not the same as the add list: the other eight have no add trend in our data. One carries an injury tag (Kyler Murray Questionable), so check status before you slot him in.
What the Week 9 projections say
A hot streak only matters if it continues. This table shows each riser's Week 9 PPR projection, next week's, and the sum of Sleeper's projections for the next three weeks. "Weeks" is how many of those weeks have a projection, so compare the per-week column, not the total. A dash means no projection.
| Player | Last 3 PPG | Week 9 proj | Next week | Next-3 sum | Weeks | Per week |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tony Pollard | 24.3 | — | 11.6 | 24.9 | 2 | 12.4 |
| Tyler Allgeier | 16.6 | 12.2 | 13.7 | 39.6 | 3 | 13.2 |
| Joe Burrow | 31.0 | 21.3 | 20.5 | 65.2 | 3 | 21.7 |
| Luther Burden III | 19.9 | 14.5 | — | 29.5 | 2 | 14.8 |
| Bhayshul Tuten | 21.2 | 13.5 | 15.7 | 45.2 | 3 | 15.1 |
| Kyler Murray | 17.4 | — | 15.7 | 31.1 | 2 | 15.6 |
| Malik Willis | 19.8 | 17.8 | 17.3 | 51.3 | 3 | 17.1 |
| D'Andre Swift | 23.3 | 16.5 | — | 34.8 | 2 | 17.4 |
| Ja'Marr Chase | 22.7 | 19.7 | 19.0 | 58.8 | 3 | 19.6 |
| Rashee Rice | 15.5 | 15.7 | 15.4 | 48.0 | 3 | 16.0 |
Eight of the ten risers have a Week 9 projection; Tony Pollard and Kyler Murray have none in our data. Of those eight, seven are projected below the last-3 pace and Rashee Rice is projected above it (15.7 against 15.5). The projections do not chase the streak. Six of eight sit closer to the season average than to the last-3 number. Joe Burrow has the highest Week 9 projection of the group at 21.3, against 31.0 over the last three.
For the longer view, Joe Burrow has the best per-week number among the risers with all three weeks projected: 65.2 over three weeks, or 21.7 a week. Plan around that number, not around the last-3 average.
Cold starters: last 3 well below season
| Player | Pos | Games | Season PPG | Last 3 PPG | Difference | Week 9 proj | Next-3 per week |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bryce Young (CAR) | QB | 7 | 18.7 | 11.9 | -6.8 | 17.0 | 18.7 |
| Kenneth Walker III (KC) | RB | 7 | 22.9 | 16.7 | -6.2 | 22.0 | 21.6 |
| Christian Watson (GB) | WR | 8 | 18.4 | 12.5 | -5.9 | 15.9 | 15.7 |
| Jacoby Brissett (ARI) | QB | 8 | 14.8 | 9.0 | -5.8 | — | 11.9 |
| Tyler Shough (NO) | QB | 7 | 18.8 | 13.5 | -5.3 | 15.3 | 16.7 |
| Kyren Williams (LAR) | RB | 8 | 18.8 | 13.6 | -5.2 | 18.7 | 18.2 |
| Garrett Wilson (NYJ) | WR | 8 | 14.2 | 9.1 | -5.1 | 14.3 | 15.5 |
| Zay Flowers (BAL) | WR | 8 | 15.9 | 11.0 | -4.9 | 13.8 | 15.3 |
Bryce Young has the largest drop of the group at -6.8 (18.7 to 11.9), with Kenneth Walker III close behind at -6.2. These are not sells on their own. A 19-point season average does not vanish in three games. 7 of 8 have a Week 9 projection, and all seven sit above the last-3 number. The next-3 per-week figure is higher than the last-3 average for all eight. Jacoby Brissett has no Week 9 projection in our data, so lean on the start/sit tool for him.
Three of the eight are quarterbacks (Bryce Young, Jacoby Brissett, Tyler Shough). Jacoby Brissett (ARI) is the one without a Week 9 projection: 14.8 for the season, 9.0 over the last three, and the next 2 weeks project at 11.9 a week.
How to use this
- Start with this week's projection. Last-3 is the tiebreaker, not the verdict.
- Open the start/sit tool and compare two similar players side by side.
- Read the Weeks column before you trust a next-3 sum. A two-week sum is not comparable with a three-week one.
- For the longer view, the rest-of-season rankings blend this week's projection, the last 3 games and the season average.
- Check the full Week 9 start/sit page before you lock your lineup, and skip any name with an injury tag until their status is clear.
Frequently asked questions
Which fantasy players are breaking out in Week 9?
As of Nov 6, 2026, the biggest gaps between last-3 and season PPR average are Tony Pollard (+9.7), Tyler Allgeier (+6.1), Joe Burrow (+5.9) and Luther Burden III (+5.4). The pool is players with at least 4 games and a season average of 8.0 or better.
Is last-3 PPG better than season PPG for start/sit?
Neither alone. Last-3 is a small sample, and the Week 9 projection for seven of the eight projected risers here sits below his last-3 average. Use last-3 to break ties between players with similar projections.
Who is cooling off in fantasy football this week?
The biggest drops from season average to last-3 average are Bryce Young (-6.8), Kenneth Walker III (-6.2) and Christian Watson (-5.9). Check the projection column before you bench any of them.
Should I add a player just because his last 3 games are hot?
Check the projection first. Joe Burrow is projected for 21.3 in Week 9, the top number among the risers, and seven of the eight projected risers are below their last-3 pace. Read the Weeks column too: some next-3 sums cover only two weeks.
Where can I compare two players for this week?
Use the start/sit tool for a side-by-side on projection, season PPG and last-3 PPG, or the rest-of-season rankings for the longer view.
More from the blog
- Week 10 Fantasy Breakouts: Last 3 Games vs Season PPG
- Dynasty Rookie Risers and Fallers Week 10: Who Moved Since Nov 4
- Week 10 Start/Sit Projection Tiers: QB, RB, WR and TE
Numbers as of November 6, 2026. Live values move daily, so check the linked pages for today’s. Fantasy football is for fun. This is data, not betting advice.