By DynastyMath Staff · Published · Numbers as of November 7, 2026 · 5 min read
Past points are a record. Projections are a forecast. When the two disagree, you have a trade. Numbers as of Nov 7, 2026.
For each player, we took the average projected PPR points per week over Weeks 9-11 and compared it with his points per game this season. A buy is a player whose projection sits above his season average. A sell is a player who has been scoring more than he is projected to score. The pool is 32 receivers, running backs and tight ends. The rules are plain: at least 4 games played, a projection for all three weeks, a rest-of-season score of 12 or higher, and no player ruled Out or on IR. Quarterbacks and the top 12 running backs by dynasty value are left out. This is redraft PPR. Dynasty values are a separate question.
"Difference" is the projection per week minus season PPG. A plus means the forecast is higher than what he has scored. The ROS score blends the projection (40%), last-3 PPG (30%) and season PPG (30%).
Seven buy targets
| Player | Pos | Team | Season PPG | Last 3 | Proj per week, Wks 9-11 | Difference | ROS score | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rashee Rice | WR | KC | 11.3 | 15.5 | 16.0 | +4.7 | 14.5 | — |
| DJ Moore | WR | BUF | 10.6 | 10.7 | 14.7 | +4.1 | 12.3 | Questionable |
| Tyler Allgeier | RB | ARI | 10.5 | 16.6 | 13.7 | +3.2 | 13.6 | — |
| Ollie Gordon II | RB | MIA | 10.3 | 13 | 13.3 | +3.0 | 12.3 | — |
| Justin Jefferson | WR | MIN | 14.4 | 13.8 | 17.4 | +3.0 | 15.4 | — |
| Chase Brown | RB | CIN | 13 | 11 | 15.2 | +2.2 | 13.3 | — |
| Nico Collins | WR | HOU | 15.2 | 8 | 17.0 | +1.8 | 13.8 | — |
Rashee Rice has the biggest plus of the 32: 16.0 projected per week against 11.3 scored (+4.7). He has played 5 games, so the season number is a small sample. His last three average 15.5, above his season line.
DJ Moore is next at +4.1: 14.7 projected, 10.6 scored, 10.7 over his last three. He is listed Questionable, so check his status before you offer. Justin Jefferson is projected 17.4 per week against 14.4 scored, with 13.8 recently. He has the highest ROS score of the seven (15.4) and no injury tag.
Three running backs make the buy list: Tyler Allgeier, Ollie Gordon II and Chase Brown. Tyler Allgeier and Ollie Gordon II have both scored more over their last three (16.6 and 13) than over the season (10.5 and 10.3), so the forecast and the recent games point the same way. Chase Brown averages 13 on the season, 11 lately, and projects 15.2.
Nico Collins is the risky one. He projects 17.0 per week and has scored 15.2, but his last three average 8, the lowest of the seven, on 5 games. That gap is a risk, so he is the weakest buy here.
Seven sell candidates
| Player | Pos | Team | Season PPG | Last 3 | Proj per week, Wks 9-11 | Difference | ROS score | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Isaiah Likely | TE | NYG | 16.1 | 19.8 | 12.3 | -3.8 | 15.7 | — |
| Tee Higgins | WR | CIN | 19.9 | 22.8 | 16.5 | -3.4 | 19.4 | — |
| Brock Bowers | TE | LV | 20.6 | 17.5 | 17.7 | -2.9 | 18.5 | — |
| Tre Tucker | WR | LV | 12.5 | 16 | 10.5 | -2.0 | 12.7 | — |
| Jameson Williams | WR | DET | 14.4 | 20.6 | 12.5 | -1.9 | 15.5 | — |
| Trey McBride | TE | ARI | 18.8 | 19.9 | 17.1 | -1.7 | 18.4 | — |
| Chuba Hubbard | RB | CAR | 19 | 18 | 17.3 | -1.7 | 18.0 | — |
Isaiah Likely has the biggest minus of the 32: 16.1 scored per game, 12.3 projected (-3.8). His last three average 19.8, so recent scoring is hot and the forecast still says cool down. Tre Tucker and Jameson Williams look the same way. Tre Tucker has 16 over his last three against 12.5 for the season and projects 10.5. Jameson Williams has 20.6 against 14.4 and projects 12.5.
Tee Higgins and Brock Bowers are sells on the math, but they are still projected high: 16.5 and 17.7 per week. Tee Higgins has the highest ROS score of the seven sells (19.4). A gap of 3.4 on a player projected at 16.5 is a price play, not a panic. Brock Bowers has scored 20.6 per game but only 17.5 over his last three.
Trey McBride (-1.7) and Chuba Hubbard (-1.7) are the smallest gaps on the list. Both still project above 17 per week. Hold them unless a manager overpays.
What the table does not say
Projections are Sleeper's, and they miss. Only 5 games back the season average for Rashee Rice, DJ Moore and Nico Collins, so one big week moves it. Last-3 PPG is three games. Three players in the pool are listed Questionable: Amon-Ra St. Brown, DJ Moore and George Pickens. Only DJ Moore is on a list above. The pool leans negative: 19 of 32 players project below their season average, and 13 project above. A minus is common. A plus is not.
How to use this
- Look up each sell on your roster. If the difference is -3.4 or lower, test the market.
- Offer a sell for a buy at the same position, then compare the two in the start/sit tool and price the deal in the trade analyzer.
- Check status first. DJ Moore is Questionable.
- For the full list by position, see the rest-of-season rankings and the WR rest-of-season page.
- Keep a player if he starts for you and the difference is under 1.
Frequently asked questions
Who are the best redraft trade targets in Week 9?
As of Nov 7, 2026, Rashee Rice (16.0 projected per week against 11.3 scored), DJ Moore (14.7 against 10.6) and Tyler Allgeier (13.7 against 10.5) show the biggest gains over their season PPG.
Who should I sell in redraft right now?
Isaiah Likely (16.1 scored, 12.3 projected), Tee Higgins (19.9 against 16.5) and Brock Bowers (20.6 against 17.7) have the biggest gaps in the wrong direction.
Should I sell Trey McBride?
Probably not. He is -1.7 against his season PPG, but he still projects 17.1 per week.
What does the difference column mean?
It is the average Weeks 9-11 projection per week minus season PPG. Rashee Rice is +4.7, so the projection is 4.7 points per week above what he has scored.
Are these dynasty values?
No. These are redraft PPR numbers. For dynasty prices, use the dynasty trade values.
More from the blog
- Week 10 Fantasy Breakouts: Last 3 Games vs Season PPG
- Dynasty Rookie Risers and Fallers Week 10: Who Moved Since Nov 4
- Week 10 Start/Sit Projection Tiers: QB, RB, WR and TE
Numbers as of November 7, 2026. Live values move daily, so check the linked pages for today’s. Fantasy football is for fun. This is data, not betting advice.