By DynastyMath Staff · Published · Numbers as of October 20, 2026 · 5 min read
Three games is a sample, not a verdict. But your league-mates trade on it anyway. So here is the question: who is scoring far above or below his season pace, and does his dynasty value agree?
The rule: players valued at 1,000 or more, with at least 4 games played and a full last-three window. That leaves 99 players. The gap is last-3 PPG minus season PPG in PPR. Season PPG includes those three games, so the real swing is bigger than the gap. Values as of Oct 20, 2026.
The pattern: heaters get paid, slumps don't get punished
The eight hottest players have a median value change of +14.8% since Oct 14. The eight coldest have a median of +4.5%. The market rewards a streak fast. It barely notices a slump. That is the opening on both sides: sell the heaters while the price is up, and buy the slumpers who are still scoring.
The calls follow three rules. A hot player whose value is up 10% or more is a sell-high. A hot player below that is a hold. A cold player still averaging 12 or more over his last three, with value up no more than 10%, is a buy-low. A cold player under 12 is a wait.
The eight hottest
| Player | Pos / age | Season PPG | Last 3 PPG | Change | Value | Since Oct 14 | Call |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drake Maye (NE) | QB2 / 24 | 19.7 | 29.8 | +10.1 | 4,834 | +659 (+15.8%) | Sell-high |
| Malik Nabers (NYG) | WR12 / 23 | 17.1 | 26.9 | +9.8 | 6,437 | +325 (+5.3%) | Hold |
| Kyle Pitts (ATL) | TE12 / 26 | 8.3 | 15.3 | +7 | 1,188 | +4 (+0.3%) | Hold |
| Ollie Gordon (MIA) | RB27 / 22 | 9.6 | 15.8 | +6.2 | 1,289 | +292 (+29.3%) | Sell-high |
| Germie Bernard (PIT) | WR40 / 22 | 8.9 | 14.4 | +5.5 | 1,337 | +863 (+182.1%) | Sell-high |
| Isaiah Likely (NYG) | TE4 / 26 | 18.2 | 23.3 | +5.1 | 3,281 | +643 (+24.4%) | Sell-high |
| Colston Loveland (CHI) | TE10 / 22 | 7.1 | 11.4 | +4.3 | 2,170 | +210 (+10.7%) | Sell-high |
| Jaylen Warren (PIT) | RB17 / 27 | 17.1 | 20.7 | +3.6 | 2,921 | +352 (+13.7%) | Sell-high |
Sell now. 6 of the eight are sell-highs. Germie Bernard is the loudest: 14.4 PPG over his last three, and his value went from 474 to 1,337 in six days. Isaiah Likely is the other big one at 23.3 PPG, up 24.4%. Ollie Gordon is up 29.3% and listed Questionable, so his price carries extra risk. Jaylen Warren, Colston Loveland and Drake Maye are also up 10% or more.
Drake Maye is a closer call. He has the biggest jump on the board, 29.8 against 19.7, and his value is up 659 points. A quarterback at 4,834 is a real asset, and a 1QB sell only works if you get a better quarterback back. Check your league format first.
Hold. Malik Nabers (6,437) and Kyle Pitts (1,188) are scoring well above their season pace but their prices have not run: +325 (+5.3%) and +4 (+0.3%). The most valuable player on the hot list is Malik Nabers. His price has room, so you hold.
The eight coldest
| Player | Pos / age | Season PPG | Last 3 PPG | Change | Value | Since Oct 14 | Call |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Amon-Ra St. Brown (DET) | WR3 / 26 | 20.8 | 13.4 | -7.4 | 9,048 | -455 (-4.8%) | Buy-low |
| Jaxon Smith-Njigba (SEA) | WR1 / 24 | 27.5 | 20.3 | -7.2 | 10,160 | +330 (+3.4%) | Buy-low |
| Kenyon Sadiq (NYJ) | TE14 / 21 | 6.9 | 0.8 | -6.1 | 1,100 | +16 (+1.5%) | Wait |
| Brock Purdy (SF) | QB5 / 26 | 23.7 | 17.7 | -6 | 3,737 | -159 (-4.1%) | Buy-low |
| Jalen Coker (CAR) | WR26 / 24 | 17 | 11.4 | -5.6 | 3,381 | +483 (+16.7%) | Wait |
| Derrick Henry (BAL) | RB13 / 32 | 19.5 | 14 | -5.5 | 3,401 | +374 (+12.4%) | Hold |
| Tyler Shough (NO) | QB17 / 27 | 19.5 | 14.2 | -5.3 | 1,358 | +72 (+5.6%) | Buy-low |
| Justin Jefferson (MIN) | WR6 / 27 | 15.9 | 10.8 | -5.1 | 7,848 | +734 (+10.3%) | Wait |
Buy. Amon-Ra St. Brown has the biggest slump on the board, 13.4 PPG over his last three against 20.8, and his value is down only 455 points (4.8%). He is still scoring 13.4 a week. Jaxon Smith-Njigba is the most valuable cold player at 10,160, and he is still putting up 20.3. Brock Purdy and Tyler Shough are the cheaper versions. All four average 12 or more over their last three and a price that has not moved much.
Wait. Kenyon Sadiq is averaging 0.8 over his last three. That is not a dip, that is gone. Justin Jefferson (10.8) and Jalen Coker (11.4) are below the 12-point line. Jalen Coker is up 16.7% in value, the biggest rise on the cold list, so he is the sell side of this group, not the buy.
Hold. Derrick Henry is 32, scoring 14 against a 19.5 season average, with his value up 12.4%. The price already moved the wrong way for a buyer.
Three trades that are fair on paper
These move heaters for slumpers, and each sits inside the calculator's fair range, within 5% after its depth discount.
| You give | You get | Calculator totals | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Germie Bernard | Tyler Shough | 1,337 vs 1,358 | 1.5% |
| Kyle Pitts + Jaylen Warren | Brock Purdy | 3,812 vs 3,737 | 2.0% |
| Malik Nabers + Isaiah Likely | Amon-Ra St. Brown | 8,898 vs 9,048 | 1.7% |
The third one trades a hold and a sell for Amon-Ra St. Brown, WR3 by value. Fair on paper is not fair for your roster. Run your version in the dynasty trade analyzer.
How to use this
- Check the price first. A hot streak with a flat price is a hold. A hot streak with a price up 10% or more is a sale.
- Buy slumps that still score. A cold player at 12 or more per game is not broken.
- Skip the true dead. Kenyon Sadiq is the one on the cold list with a last-three average under 5.
- Mind the sample. Three games is three games. Players with a status tag, like Ollie Gordon (Questionable), need a news check.
- Re-check daily. The buy-low and sell-high page and risers and fallers update every morning. This article does not.
Frequently asked questions
Which dynasty players are hot right now?
As of Oct 20, 2026: Drake Maye (29.8 PPG over his last three vs 19.7 for the season), Malik Nabers (26.9 PPG over his last three vs 17.1 for the season), Kyle Pitts (15.3 PPG over his last three vs 8.3 for the season).
Who should I sell high in dynasty?
Players whose last-three PPG is well above their season PPG and whose value is already up 10% or more since Oct 14, such as Germie Bernard (+182.1%), Isaiah Likely (+24.4%) and Jaylen Warren (+13.7%).
Is a slumping dynasty player a buy-low?
Only if he is still scoring. Amon-Ra St. Brown (13.4 PPG over his last three) and Jaxon Smith-Njigba (20.3) qualify. Kenyon Sadiq (0.8) does not.
How many games make a streak?
Three here. Our window is the last three games, with at least 4 games played and a value of 1,000 or more. That is a small sample, so treat each call as a price check, not a prediction.
More from the blog
- Week 7 Waiver Wire Pickups: Which Adds the Projections Back
- 2026 Dynasty Rookie Risers and Fallers After Week 6
- Dynasty Buy-Low and Sell-High Trade Targets Before the Deadline
Numbers as of October 20, 2026. Live values move daily, so check the linked pages for today’s. Fantasy football is for fun. This is data, not betting advice.